Weekly Newsletter

In This Issue Last Week in Review: The Fed met, and inserted a “twist” into things. Forecast for the Week: A full week of economic reports is ahead, including news on inflation, the state of the economy, consumer confidence, and more. View: No one wants to get a bad rap, especially online. Check out Part 2 of our series on improving your online persona. Last Week in Review "Twist and shout." The Fed inserted a “twist” into the market last week, but only time will tell if their decision will be cause for shouting. Read on to learn what the Fed did, and what this could mean for home loan rates. The week began with speculation that the Fed would announce “Operation Twist” after its two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. What is Operation Twist? Essentially, Operation Twist is where the Fed sells its holdings of short-term securities and Notes and then purchases longer-term Notes and Bonds in order to try and lower longer term rates even further. And Operation Twist is exactly what the Fed announced, but their announcement came with some key surprises: First, the Fed’s statement was more strongly worded than expected, as the Fed said that there remains “significant” risks to the downside for the US economy. Second, the funding for Operation Twist was larger than expected, coming in at $400 Billion. Third, the Fed said they will reinvest principal payments on their current holdings of agency debt back into Mortgage Backed Securities…which led to a huge rally in the Bond Market Wednesday, while Stocks took a nose dive. So what does all of this mean for home loan rates? The Fed’s statement has heightened pessimism, fear, and concern...and normally those sentiments help Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied) improve as investors seek a safe haven for their money. But it’s important to understand that even if Bonds improve, home loan rates may not improve much further. Why? It is basic supply and demand: lenders’ pipelines have been overflowing with people wanting to refinance or purchase a home and take advantage of the historically low rates we’ve seen. This level of volume flowing into the system has already created a backlog of work for lenders, which means they may not pass along all the gains we are seeing in the Bond Market onto their rate sheets. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients. Forecast for the Week Economic data will impact trading throughout the week by giving investors a broad look at the economy: Housing will be first up with New Home Sales on Monday. Last week's housing data was mixed with lower than expected Housing Starts but Existing Home Sales came in on the positive side. Pending Sales will also be reported on Thursday. The week will also give us a read on how consumers are feeling in this weakening economy. Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday and Consumer Sentiment will be delivered on Friday. Weekly Initial Jobless claims will also be closely watched on Thursday. The job markets continue to be a drag on the economy as each week over 400,000 people are claiming unemployment benefits. The big news this week will be the government's report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will be released Thursday. With the economy slowing, GDP will be on the radar screen for signs of recessionary numbers. Also important will be Wednesday’s Durable Goods Orders, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items. Investors will also be closely watching the inflation figures within the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation and will be reported on Friday. In addition to those reports, investors will be closely watching the movements in the Stock Market after last week's plunge. The big questions will be: How low can Stocks go? And, are we in a bear market or just a correction phase? Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds rallied last week, though they did give back some of their gains on Friday. I’ll be watching both Stocks and Bonds closely this week to see which way the markets move. Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Sep 23, 2011) The Mortgage Market Guide View... What Does the Internet Say About You? Part 2: Simple Steps to Improve Your Online Persona Your online persona is a lot like a credit score. It’s already out there whether you check it or not. And other people can review it at any time. The similarities don’t end there. Like a credit score, you can review your online persona and work to improve it…so when people like potential clients look at it, they’ll see what you want them to see. Step One: Evaluate Your Online Persona In order to know what your online persona looks like, you have to actually check it. So start by opening your web browser to a search website such as Google.com, Yahoo.com, Ask.com, AltaVista.com, Lycos.com, or Microsoft’s new Bing.com. Then simply type in your name and hit search. Scan through the first two or three pages to see what items are coming up most often, and make note of any negative news that you’d like to get removed. You can also do more specific searches. For example, you can type your name in parentheses along with your email address, the name of your college, your job title, a hobby, or even other people’s names. For example, you could type “your name + friend’s name” or “your name + college name.” You may be surprised what you find with some of these specific searches. Once you’ve searched your name on one site, open another and do the same thing. You’ll probably find a number of similarities, so you only need to check a few different sites to get an idea of what the Internet says about you. Remember to take specific notes about false or unflattering information. You’ll want to write down what it is, where it appears, and why it shouldn’t be there. Finally, don’t forget to search for videos and images! After all, one of your friends may have posted photos and tagged you in the photo without you realizing it. You can use some of the same sites listed above—only this time, click the video or image search button before you search for your name. Step Two: Remove Anything Negative Like your credit score, if you find information on the Internet that is inaccurate or inappropriate, your first step should be to try to get it removed. This is where those diligent notes from step one will come in handy. First, if you found something unflattering that you actually posted in the past, remove it yourself. For example, if you posted pictures or stories on an old blog, go back and remove them. In addition, take the time to go through any websites or social networking sites where you control the information. Maybe you have a blog, website, or social networking site that features pictures and text that you post. Go back through the information to make sure you still want people to see or read it. If not, remove it immediately…even if it didn’t show up in the search you conducted. Second, if you found information on other websites that you think should be removed, contact them right away. Start with the websites that have the worst (most egregious or most inaccurate) information. Using a polite but firm tone, explain what content you found on their site, why it’s a problem, and then specifically ask them to remove that information from their site. Be as specific as possible. If the information is false, say that. If the information is private and used without permission, say that. You may even want to include a link to the material to make sure they can quickly find the problematic information that you’re asking them to remove. It’s a Marathon…Not a Sprint Remember, the Internet has a long memory. So it may take some time for those negative elements to stop showing up in searches. But by removing them, you can help make sure that even if they do show up in a search, people won’t be able to actually view the detailed information when they try to click the link. When you combine the steps above with the process of adding new more professional content to your website, blog or social media sites, you’ll be able to continually improve your online persona! Economic Calendar for the Week of September 26 - September 30 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. September 26 10:00 New Home S

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Inflation Heats Up

Last Week in Review: Inflation is heating up, but what does that mean for home loan rates? Forecast for the Week: Several pieces of housing news will hit the wires, plus the Fed meets. View: No one wants to get a bad rap, especially online. Check out these tips for building your brand on the web. Last Week in Review "Inflation, all we've never wanted." The Go-Go's may have sang about vacation being all we've ever wanted in the 1980's, but if we were to re-write the lyrics about last week, we could sing about inflation. Read on to learn why this matters. We saw a double dose of inflation news last week and while the Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) remained unchanged in August, the year-over-year Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped up to hit the upper-end of the Fed's threshold of 2%. So why is this significant? The concept is very simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher. What’s more, in light of last week’s higher consumer inflation reading, the Misery Index—which is the Unemployment Rate (9.1%) plus the level of year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index (3.8%)—is at a disconcerting 12.9, which is the highest in nearly 30 years. Our great country needs a whopping dose of certainty, clarity and confidence...and in the absence of it, this index will continue to rise. Remember: Once inflation starts to emerge it can manifest rather quickly. Future inflation readings will be closely watched to see if a trend higher is emerging, and last week’s elevated number will certainly heat up the debate surrounding more stimulus, as more money into the system fuels inflation further. If inflation heats up even more, the Fed will likely back off their "low rates until mid-2013" mandate. Inflation really does change everything, and I will continue to follow this story closely and keep you informed. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home. If I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients, call or email me anytime. Forecast for the Week This week we’ll see less economic data than last week's litany of reports…but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some big news to watch! Housing Starts for August will be delivered on Tuesday and are at extremely low levels given the current environment. The July reading was down 1.5% from June…but it was actually up 10% from a year ago in July 2010. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, will also be released on Tuesday. More housing news follows Wednesday with the Existing Home Sales Report. Also on Tuesday and Wednesday is the regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. With inflation heating up, it will be important to see what the Fed has to say. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday as usual, and they continue to remain above 400,000 rising to 428,000 last week. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates did not react well to last week’s inflation news. I’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens this week. Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Sep 16, 2011) The Mortgage Market Guide View... What Does the Internet Say About You? Part 1: Building Your Brand Online Managing your online persona is all about building your brand. That means taking a proactive role in determining how people see you when they search for you on the Internet. Here are a few simple ways you can take control of your online persona: Create a Profile: One of the easiest ways to make sure positive attributes, qualifications and accomplishments stand out on the Internet is to create a profile that features those aspects. A profile only takes a matter of minutes to create and can help boost positive information about you higher in an Internet search. One of the best profiles to start with is a Google profile. Once you create a Google profile, your name, occupation, location and a photo (if you upload one) will appear on the first page of Google when your name is searched. Participate in Social Networking: You’ve no doubt heard about popular social networking sites like Facebook.com and LinkedIn.com, as well as micro-blogging sites like Twitter.com and online photo sites like Flickr.com. These sites offer you fun, interactive ways to connect with potential clients, peers, and of course family. In addition, they are great for improving your online persona because they often climb near the top of searches. That said, there are few things to keep in mind. First, you need to “participate” not just “join.” The more information you include in your profile and the more you participate, the more useful these sites will be in building your brand. Second, when you do participate make sure it’s relevant. Your status updates don’t have to be all business and no play; it’s okay to have a balance of your personal and professional life on these sites. But make sure that you keep it appropriate. That means keeping slang to a minimum and avoiding inappropriate words, humor, photos or stories. Finally, make sure you take advantage of other online communities or discussion threads hosted by professional organizations. Not only will your peers and potential clients get to know you on those sites, but your posts will often find their way into your search results. But remember: make sure you only join online groups or communities that reflect the positive image you’re trying to portray. Before joining any group or discussion thread, ask yourself if you’d feel comfortable discussing your membership in that group during a meeting with a client. Start a Blog or Website: One of the most productive ways to control your online persona is to create new content on a blog or website that highlights or reflects your expertise. A blog or website not only gives you the space necessary to regular write about your areas of expertise, but they can also rank high in Internet searches if the content is updated regularly. While this step may seem a bit overwhelming at first, a number of providers such as Wordpress.com or Blogger.com make it fast and convenient. You don’t need to know how to program html or JavaScript. They do all the work for you. All you have to do is sign-in and post. So what should you post? Use your imagination. But remember to take the pressure off yourself – after all, you don’t have to write a professional white paper in every post. Maybe you want to post about the top three things you learned at a professional conference and include a link to the conference website. Maybe you just received an award or professional certification… write about that and put a link to the site that awarded it. As long as you’re not divulging trade secrets, write about what you do, what you know, and what your job growth goals are for the future. Interlink Your Sites: Once you’ve created a few online profiles, started participating in social network sites, and developed a quality blog with a few posts, it’s time to make sure people notice. That means promoting each of these sites in other sites by linking to them. So, on your Facebook page, you should include links to your Twitter account and your blog or website. On your blog or website, create a Contact Information page that includes links to your online profiles, Facebook page, Twitter account, and so on. On your profile pages, include links to your blog and social networking sites. It sounds a bit repetitive, if not overkill. But it’s not. It’s important. Why? The simple reason is that links are factored into Internet searches. When someone does a search of your name on the Internet, the sites that typically rank the highest have the most sites linking to them. That means, the more sites that link to your blog, the better chance you have of it hitting the first page of search results. And that’s the ultimate goal here…getting the positive information that you create to rise to the top, so people see the online persona that you’ve strategically developed and that you want them to see. Economic Calendar for the Week of September 19 - September 23 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. September 20 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 575K   604K Moderate

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Obama Spoke but Will Action Follow?

In This Issue Last Week in Review: President Obama spoke...but what actions will follow? Forecast for the Week: With reports on inflation, manufacturing, and consumer news, there’s sure to be tons of action in the markets. View: Got stress? Who doesn’t these days…but take a moment and learn a few specific actions you can take to reduce your stress levels. Last Week in Review “Actions speak louder than words.” There were certainly important words spoken last week by President Obama. Read on to learn what he said, and what the impact could be on home loan rates. Last Thursday, President Obama proposed a $447 Billion Job Stimulus Plan, which was larger and broader than most had expected. The program calls for tax cuts, state aid, infrastructure spending, on the job training, plus some surprises like tax cuts for small business to encourage hiring and a "Helping More Americans Refinance Mortgages" or HARP plan. There are no details to the HARP plan as of yet, as the President has just instructed his team to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and lenders to develop the plan. I’ll be sure to keep you posted as more details emerge on this plan. Only time will tell how much of the President's plan will only be talked about… and how much will be put into action that will make a difference. But one thing is for sure: With 400,000 plus brand new people still filing for first time unemployment benefits every week, action is definitely needed to create jobs. Plus, when you factor in the 3.7 Million people still collecting some sort of benefits, it’s no wonder why consumer confidence and demand is starting to revisit levels seen in the midst of the financial crisis back in 2008. So what could all of this mean for home loan rates? Some of President Obama’s plan does indeed appear to be stimulative in the short run, and anything that helps growth would be bad for Bonds and home loan rates longer-term. However, in the short term, Bonds—including mortgage Bonds, which home loan rates are tied to—are benefitting from the continued credit crisis in Europe, as investors see our Bonds as a safe haven for their money. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, which makes this a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Again, if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients, call or email me anytime. As we pass the 10th anniversary of the terrible events of September 11, our hearts continue to go out to the families who were impacted on that day. It is a time to stop and remember, and also to consider the people in your life and what is most important about our great country. I stand with you in remembrance. Forecast for the Week This week's economic data is chock full of important reports that could give us hints on whether the economy is slipping into a recession or starting to turn the corner...and the action really heats up in the second half of the week: There will be a double dose of inflation news, beginning Wednesday with the Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and then Thursday with the Consumer Price Index. CPI measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households, and this report will tell us if there has been a pick up in prices. If any inflationary signs appear, it could put a dent in Bond prices and home loan rates. Retail Sales for August will also be reported on Wednesday. This gives the investor a gauge on how consumer spending is holding up in these tough times. Thursday brings a double dose of news about the manufacturing sector, with Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and the Philadelphia Fed Index. Also on Thursday, we'll see another Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week's claims equaled 414,000, above that important 400,000 level which indicates real improvement in the labor market. Ending the week, Consumer Sentiment will be delivered on Friday-and after the previous reading, any gain will be met with open arms. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and Home loan rates were able to end the week above an important technical level due to continued problems in Europe. If you're wondering if you can take advantage of this situation, now is a great time to call or email me and learn more. Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Sep 09, 2011) The Mortgage Market Guide View... Stop Kidding Yourself… And Start Managing Your Stress Just about everyone experiences stress and anxiety on some level. High-pressure jobs, relationship issues, and financial worries are just some of the causes of chronic stress. But the real issue is whether you're managing it correctly. The following information can help you do just that! What Is Stress? First, let’s define what we’re talking about. Stress is the body's way of coping with immediate danger. When confronted by immediate danger, nearly every system in our body modifies itself for the sake of survival. The brain releases hormones that have control over organs, including the heart and lungs, as well as functions such as circulation and digestion. Why Does it Matter? The reality is, when you’re facing a short-term crisis, acute stress can actually benefit you. By having a heart that's capable of beating faster and lungs that can take in more oxygen, the human body is able to react in a fight or flight manner during an emergency. Problems occur, however, when stress is experienced over a long duration—which can wreak havoc on your mind and body. 5 Tips for Reducing Stress If you find yourself experiencing chronic stress, it is important that you make a commitment to changing certain aspects of your life. Here are five tips to help you get started: 1. Identify the Source – Identify your daily sources of stress along with your sources of comfort. If they don't readily come to mind, keeping a journal may help. Take special note of any events that consistently put a strain on your energy and time, especially those that elicit a negative physical response like a headache. After several weeks, you should have a pretty good idea of what's causing your stress. 2. Watch What You Eat – It may sound silly, but a diet that consists of lean proteins, whole grains, fresh fruits, and vegetables has been shown to help reduce stress. It's a good idea to limit foods containing high amounts of caffeine, sugar, and fat, as well as your consumption of alcohol. You should also reduce your intake of overly processed meals and fast foods. 3. Increase Daily Exercise – Exercise strengthens the heart and circulatory system as well as muscles and joints, all of which are negatively affected by chronic stress. 4. Learn to Relax – Relaxation techniques can be as simple as deep breathing and as complex as transcendental meditation. Seek out whatever interests you and learn how to relax. Maybe Yoga or Tai Chi works for you. Maybe it’s just a brisk walk, a short nap, or reading a book during a short break in the day. Or maybe, if your budget permits, you’ll want to try an occasional therapeutic massage. 5. Find Support – If the tips above don’t seem to help, it may be time to seek some help and support. Consult your health plan to see if it covers therapy of this nature. If not, use the Internet to find a support group in your area. Sometimes, just knowing you're not the only one with stress is enough to create a positive change. As we work through challenges in the markets and the financial sector, make sure you’re taking time to take care of yourself. Use the tips above to find a healthy balance of work and play in your life! Economic Calendar for the Week of September 12 - September 16 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Wed. September 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Aug 0.0%   0.2% Moderate Wed. September 14 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Aug

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Labor Day Holiday

Labor Day Holiday I hope you and your family enjoy the Labor Day holiday. And, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. Due to the holiday weekend, the next full issue will arrive on Monday, September 12. In the meantime, check out the special article below from Kiplinger.com featuring tips to help you file an insurance claim. These are great ideas to keep in mind and to share with any family, friends, and associates who may have been impacted by Hurricane Irene or other recent events. I am pleased to provide this timely article to you as well as weekly insights into the mortgage and housing industries through the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. If you feel that any of your clients, friends, family members, or associates would benefit from keeping up to date on market and economic trends in this easy-to-read format, please let me know, and I will be more than happy to add them free of charge. Best wishes to you this holiday weekend. And remember, if you need any assistance at this time, just give me a call. The Mortgage Market Guide View... Tips to Help You File an Insurance Claim Getting organized will help the process go smoothly. By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com Getting your financial life in order may seem like a daunting task. But in the May 2010 issue of Kiplinger's Personal Finance we've broken it down into quick and easy fixes you can accomplish in 15 minutes or fewer. With storm and flood season upon us, one of our "recipes" for financial success should be tackled sooner rather than later: Snap digital photos of your household belongings. The images will help back up an insurance claim if your possessions are destroyed or stolen. Taking pictures is just a starting point for a complete household inventory, in which you itemize all your belongings and record details such as purchase price. You can use the Insurance Information Institute's free Know Your Stuff online home inventory software . The Insurance Information Institute also offers these four tips for when you have to file an insurance claim: 1. Call your insurance company as soon as possible if your home has been damaged and let your agent know where you can be reached. 2. Make a list of your damaged property and take photographs to substantiate your losses. Having digital photos of your belongings before they were damaged and a home inventory will help with this step. 3. Keep receipts for hotel rooms and restaurant meals if you are unable to live in your home. Most companies will reimburse you for these expenses (up to 20% of the total insurance you have on the structure of your house). 4. Make temporary repairs to prevent further damage -- and keep the receipts. Economic Calendar for the Week of September 05 - September 09 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. September 06 10:00 ISM Services Index Aug NA   52.7 Moderate Wed. September 07 02:00 Beige Book         Moderate Thu. September 08 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 9/03 NA   NA Moderate Thu. September 08 08:30 Balance of Trade Jul NA   -$53.1B Moderate [mmgwDisclosure] The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

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