USDA has funds! You may start locking your loans.

RE:                 Lender Update 2010-24

Funding for the USDA Guaranteed Rural Housing Program – Reinstatement of Chase Rural Housing’s Standard Interest Rate Lock and Extension Policies

In view of the information we have received today from USDA Rural Development regarding the Agency’s ability to issue loan approvals (Conditional Commitments: RD Form 1980-18) that are subject to Congressional action, Chase Rural Housing’s standard interest rate lock and lock extension policies have been reinstated effective immediately.

 

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Lender Notice CCs 5-2010.pdf (124 KB)

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Mortgage Update

For the week of May 24, 2010 --- Vol. 8, Issue 21

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Stock market teeters on the verge of becoming either a correction...or an "official" Bear market. Forecast for the Week: A fully loaded plate of economic news is in store, including reads on housing and consumer attitudes. View: How you can "insure" a smart and safe vacation this summer.

Last Week In Review

IT'S A SHOWDOWN...THE BULLS VS. THE BEARS. But we're not talking about the Chicago Bulls who were recently knocked out of the NBA playoffs. We're talking about the Bull Market that Stocks have enjoyed over the past months...that is now slipping back lower. So why are these animal terms used to describe action in the Stock market anyways? The terms "Bull" and "Bear" are used because of the way those animals attack. Bulls attack using an upward thrusting motion with their horns, and Bears attack by moving their powerful claws in a downward motion. So an upward market is termed a Bull market, while a downward market is called a Bear market. Last week, Stocks saw a sharp thrust downward, with prices down more than 10% from their peak. But that doesn't mean it's a Bear market just yet. Instead, the drop can be seen as a "correction", if prices recover and resume their uptrend. A correction can be quite healthy, and help a Bull market sustain its strength. But here's the trick: if the market drops 20% from its peak, it's officially considered a Bear market. That means every Bear market was once potentially just a correction. And so the debate rages on. Is this a good time to buy - because you believe it's a correction and prices will move much higher? Or is this a time to sell, before the correction turns into a Bear market? The answer should become clearer over the next few days, as the market's direction takes hold. Waiting in the wings are Bond prices and home loan rates... A Bear market could help Bond prices and home loan rates improve a bit more, as some of the money from Stock sales finds its way into the Bond market, including Mortgage Bonds. On the other hand, a correction back to a Bull market will be at the expense of some of the recent improvements that Bonds and home loan rates have enjoyed. The reality is, Mortgage Bonds have looked a lot like a lottery winner recently, since Bond prices really should be much lower, and home loan rates much higher. But Mortgage Bonds are catching every lucky break - from the situation in Greece...to the declining Euro...to the correction in the Stock market. It's all going in the favor of Mortgage Bonds...for now. But the Bond market's good fortune may not last very long - so be sure to give me a call if I can help explain the current rate situation, and how it might benefit you. ----------------------- BULL MARKETS THRUST UPWARD...WHILE BEAR MARKETS SWIPE DOWNWARD Despite the sharp sell-off in Stocks, the markets did receive some good news last week on the inflation front. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported lower than expectations for the month of April, and the more closely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to report the first month-over-month decline since March of 2009. And when volatile food and energy prices were removed from the equation, the annual Core index came in at its lowest level since January 1966. Those numbers appear to show that inflation is subdued - and with oil prices significantly lower from where they were a few weeks ago, there will even be more downward pressure on headline inflation in the next report. But the reality is that inflation will eventually begin to rear its ugly head - and once that happens, inflation can accelerate rather quickly. China recently reported a spike in inflation - and last week, the UK saw surprisingly higher inflation numbers being reported as well. So the Fed - and the markets - will have to continue to keep close tabs on inflation in the US. WHILE YOU CAN'T CONTROL IF THE BULLS OR BEARS WILL WIN THE NEXT ROUND IN THE MARKETS...THERE ARE SOME THINGS YOU CAN CONTROL. FOR EXAMPLE, CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW FOR TIPS ON "INSURING" A SMART AND SAFE VACATION THIS COMING SUMMER.

Forecast for the Week

There's a very full load of economic reports on tap this week, including fresh news on the health of the housing industry. After last week's reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits in April, we'll see reports on Existing Home Sales right away Monday morning and New Home Sales on Wednesday. We'll also discover how consumers feel about the economy with a report on Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Both reports have risen lately, indicating that consumers feel better about the present and future economic conditions. The markets will be watching to see if that trend continues in this week's reports. The manufacturing sector of the economy will also be in the spotlight this week. Wednesday brings the Durable Goods Orders report, which measures new orders placed and is considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. That report will be followed by the Chicago PMI on Friday. This report surveys more than 200 Chicago purchasing managers about the manufacturing industry and is a good indicator of overall economic activity. And if that wasn't enough, we'll also see more inflation news this week. First, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP Chain Deflator for the first quarter will be released on Thursday. The Chain Deflator is a key inflation measure included in the GDP Report. And since inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, this report could be a market mover. Unlike the Consumer Price Index that was released last week, the Chain Deflator has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the Chain Deflator. Then, one day after the Chain Deflator comes out, we'll see the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Friday. This report measures price changes in consumer goods and services, and is considered the Fed's favorite gauge on inflation. After last week's better-than-expected inflation news, the markets will definitely be watching these reports. Rounding out the week, we'll also see reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending this Friday. But that's not all...in addition to all those reports, the government will auction off $42 Billion of 2-years on Tuesday, $40 Billion of 5-years on Wednesday, and $31 Billion of 7-years on Thursday. These auctions may move the markets depending on how they are received. Oh, not to mention that the news coming out of Europe may once again add to the market's volatility here at home. That's a very full helping of potentially market moving activity. But you can count on me to be here and watching very closely. And remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have improved over the last few weeks, as Stocks have undergone their move lower. I'll be watching closely to see if Bonds...and home loan rates...can continue to improve in the week ahead. ----------------------- Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, May 21, 2010)

The Mortgage Market View

"Insuring" a Smart and Safe Vacation Summer is right around the corner, and that means many people are starting to plan some kind of summer getaway. When planning your fun-filled itinerary, the last thing you want to do is worry about any financial loss that might occur as a result of a missed flight, an injury or illness, lost baggage, or any other unforeseen incident. To ensure your peace of mind while away from home, many companies provide several different types of traveler's protection plans to help ease the burden. Without insurance, a traveler can lose nonrefundable deposits and prepayments that can add up to hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars. A good, comprehensive travel insurance plan will often reimburse a traveler for all pre-paid, nonrefundable expenses for a covered loss. Here are some general types of coverage you may want to consider before heading out for this summer's vacation: Travel Arrangement Protection - This covers you in case of trip cancellation, interruption, or travel delays (these can include inclement weather, lost or stolen passports, quarantine, hijacking or natural disaster). Medical Protection - Just because you have health insurance at home, the moment you set foot on foreign soil or even set sail on a cruise, many health plans are considered null and void, so be sure you get travel medical protection to cover emergency medical expenses, such as illness and accident expenses, and emergency medical transportation to the nearest medical facility. Baggage Protection - Not only do you want coverage for lost, stolen or damaged baggage, but many plans offer reimbursement for the purchase of essential items if baggage is delayed. Worldwide Emergency Assistance - If traveling outside of the country, make sure you purchase a policy that covers international emergencies. This can include emergency cash transfer assistance, legal assistance, and lost travel documents assistance. The cost of travel insurance is based, in most cases, on the value of the trip and the age of the traveler. Typically, the cost is 5-7 percent of the trip cost. Like most every other type of insurance, be it automobile, medical, or homeowner's, you hope you never need to use it. But it can be a relief to have it when you do need it. The bottom line is: Before embarking on your next trip, do your homework! Talk to your insurance agent - or call me for a recommendation - and learn more about all the different insurance options available to you, so you can make the best choice for your peace of mind!

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USDA funds

At this time the USDA is out of money and they will not be issuing subject to funds conditional commitments.  Please share this information with all your colleagues and borrowers.  Please share your concerns with your senators and congressman as well.  There is currently three pieces of legislation that we are waiting to pass in order to have more funds.

Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)	Class I
730 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
(202) 224-4521
Web Form: kyl.senate.gov/contact.cfm
McCain, John - (R - AZ)	Class III
241 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
(202) 224-2235
Web Form: mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.Con...

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It's Baaaaaack...... 95% LTV in Arizona!

And we thought it wouldn’t happen again!!!

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Weekly Mortgage Update

Phil Jensen Mortgage Director AmeriFirst Financial Phone: 602-692-7445 Fax:: Phil@JensenTeam.com www.JensenTeam.com

In This Issue           Last Week in Review: Little change came from the Fed's latest meeting. Find out what that means for home loan rates, and also why Greece is still the word! Forecast for the Week: Two juicy economic reports bookend the week, bringing highly anticipated news on inflation and the labor market.           Last Week In Review           They say "the only constant is change...", yet last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee ended without any major changes...no change to the Fed Funds Rate, and no change to the now-famous verbiage in their Policy Statement, stating that rates will remain low for an "extended period" of time. While the Fed does not control home loan rates, what does all this mean for those seeking home financing in the months ahead? Read on for details. There are two important things to note about last week's Fed meeting. First, despite strong earnings, a stronger Stock market, and better consumer confidence and housing numbers, St. Louis Fed President Thomas Hoenig remains the lone dissenter to the verbiage in the Policy Statement on keeping rates low for an "extended period." He feels that there is a strong risk of inflation ahead...and that the Fed needs to prepare the markets for the eventual hikes that will be coming to the Fed Funds Rate. When the Fed does indeed change this language, it will signal that the Fed has a consensus on inflation being a threat...and since inflation is the arch-enemy of home loan rates, the change in verbiage will cause rates to move higher. In addition, the Fed made no mention in their Policy Statement about selling any of their Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) holdings - and the added supply coming into the market will also cause home loan rates to rise. That said, the Fed may have discussed the topic during the meeting, and it could come up when the Meeting Minutes are released. There is growing concern that if the Fed doesn't begin selling some of these MBS holdings by 2011 that additional asset bubbles may arise. It's likely that the Fed will look to sell a meaningful chunk by year end, and this will be yet another headwind for home loan rates during the coming year. If you want to see if you can benefit from the current low-rate environment before these items adversely impact home loan rates, please give me a call or send me an email...and as always, please feel free to pass along this newsletter to a friend, coworker or family member that might benefit. In other news, Consumer Confidence rose sharply in April, to its highest reading since September 2008. This number is important because the more confident that consumers feel...the more likely it is that they will help fuel the economy. Also, the Commerce Department's Gross Domestic Product Report indicated that the economy grew for the third straight quarter, despite the report coming in slightly below estimates. Inflation readings within the report remained tame, giving the Fed cover to keep interest rates low, with inflation appearing to be subdued. But inflation concerns can arise quickly, and although the Fed is not acting just now...we can be sure they are watching very carefully. Greece was still the word last week, as Standard & Poor's Bond rating agency downgraded the debt of Greece to "junk" status. The lack of confidence in Greece's ability to repay their debt has pushed yields on their 2-Year Notes up to a whopping 18% to try and incent investors - and by way of comparison, our own US 2-Year Notes are yielding just over 1%! This is why credit downgrades are such a concern, and why the warnings from Moody's about the US overspending must be taken very seriously. There has been much greater volatility in the Bond market lately, with large price swings in both directions. It's no coincidence that the volatility increased just after the Fed exited their buying program. While concerns about Greece have caused some investors to lose some confidence in European debt instruments, and move their holdings over to US securities, which are viewed as a safer bet, the situation is fluid and there's no telling how much and for how long Bonds and home loan rates will benefit from the situation. Overall - the mix of news and market activity benefitted Bonds and home loan rates last week, improving to better levels over the week prior.           Forecast for the Week           Two important reports bookend the week ahead, and hopefully both will show changes in a good economic direction. Monday's Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports will give us a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Rest assured the Fed will be watching this report very closely, as it could impact their decisions on rates and Policy Statement verbiage, as we discussed. Thursday will bring another Initial Jobless Claims Report. At this stage in the economic recovery, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims readings we are seeing are still pretty high, which suggests that businesses are both reluctant to hire and are looking to trim overhead. And the big enchilada of employment news wraps up the week, as April's Jobs Report is due for delivery on Friday morning. Last month's report showed that 162,000 jobs were created in March, making it the biggest one-month increase in three years. Additionally, there were upward revisions to January and February, which brought the last two months' net job losses to near zero. But it's not time to break out the party hats just yet...last month's report also showed that the official Unemployment Rate remained steady at 9.7%, and when factoring in the "underemployed", including people who accepted part-time work because full-time work is simply not available, the rate of unemployment overall rose from 16.8% to 16.9%. This report will be very important to watch, as the labor market is key to our economic recovery. Remember this rule of thumb: Weak or negative economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong or positive economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, the instability in Greece and the Fed's decision to keep rates low for an extended period of time gave Bonds a boost above a key technical level. But remember, volatility is the name of the game at the moment, and things can change quickly. I'll be watching closely to see in which direction Bonds and home loan rates move this week - and always welcome a call or email from you if I can help answer any questions! ----------------------- Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, April 30, 2010)           The Mortgage Market View           Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 03 - May 07 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. May 03 08:30 Personal Income Mar 0.3%   0.0% Moderate Mon. May 03 08:30 Personal Spending Mar 0.6%   0.3% Moderate Mon. May 03 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Mar NA   0.0% HIGH Mon. May 03 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.3% HIGH Mon. May 03 10:00 ISM Index Apr 60.0   59.6 HIGH Wed. May 05 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Apr 30K   -23K Moderate Wed. May 05 10:00 ISM Services Index Apr 56.1   55.4 Moderate Thu. May 06 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 5/01 440K   448K Moderate Thu. May 06 08:30 Productivity Q1 2.4%   6.9% Moderate Fri. May 07 08:30 Average Work Week Apr 34.0   34.0 HIGH Fri. May 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Apr 0.1%   -0.1% HIGH Fri. May 07 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Apr 187K   162K HIGH Fri. May 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Apr 9.7%   9.7% HIGH   p

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