Monday, February 28, 2011

ECONOMIC FOCUS-Feb. 28th

 

Volume 15, Issue 8

For the week of February 28, 2011

Rent vs. Homeownership, A Narrowing Gap

In many metro markets the cost of renting is now approaching the cost of homeownership. There are several factors that are causing a narrowing of this gap.

Homeownership
The recession has dramatically impacted the prices of houses through these forces:

- Houses bought prior to the Great Recession (2007) were purchased at the peak of housing prices and many cases at the top of the housing bubble.

- The precipitous drop in values resulted in: 1) a negative equity for many homeowners;
1)the inability to refinance their mortgages that were upside down due to low appraised values; 3) the inability to sell without sustaining a sizeable loss, forcing cash in refis or short sales and the inability to relocate for employment or other reasons.

- To counter this impact, Federal programs were instituted to provide mortgage restructuring for those who were have financial hardship but wanted to remain in their homes.

- These programs have now run their course and the housing market continues to be faced with a glut of REOs and distressed properties.

- Lower home prices and basement bottom interest rates have brought homeownership affordability to it’s highest level in years.

Renting
As a result many former homeowners have turned to renting. This migration has resulted in:

- A larger demand for rentals. It takes time to plan, permit, construct and bring to market rental property.

- This lag in supply pushes the rental prices up to meet demand.

- The cost of renting is now compounded with the addition of hidden costs including required renter’s insurance and storage fees for those downsizing.

A Narrowing Gap
Traditionally, renting has been the more affordable proposition. But when you take these points and factor the missed opportunity for appreciation and higher quality of life that homeownership brings the scale tilts to homeownership as the better of the two.


Key Economic Reports Released This Week

RELEASE
DATE

ECONOMIC
INDICATORS

RELEASED
BY

CONSENSUS

Wt.

INFLUENCE ON
INTEREST RATES

Mon 02/28
8:30 am et

Personal Income & Outlays
for January '11

Bur. of Econ. Analysis
Dept. of Commerce

Income 0.3%
Outlays 0.4%

***

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Mon 02/28
10:00 am et

Chicago PMI
for February '11

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

68.0%

**

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Mon 02/28
10:00 am et

Pending Home Sales Index
for December '10

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

-2.5%

**

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Mon 02/28
1:00 pm et

Weekly Bill Auction

Dept. of the Treasury

N/A

**

 If strong demand
 If weak demand

Tue 03/01

Motor Vehicle Sales
for January '11

Automobile Manufacturers

Vehicles 12.7M

**

Undetermined

Tue 03/01
10:00 am et

ISM (NAPM) Index
for February '11

National Association of Purchasing Mgt.

61.0%

**

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Tue 03/01
10

Construction Spending
for January '11

Bureau of the Census
Dept. of Commerce

-0.9%

**

 If above consensus !
 If below consensus

Wed 03/02
7:00 am et

MBA Mtg Apps Survey
for week ending 02/25

Mortgage Bankers Association of America

N/A

*

Undetermined

Wed 03/02
8:15 am et

ADP Employment Report
for February '11

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

185k

**

 If above consensus!
 If below consensus

Wed 03/02
2:00 pm et

Beige Book

Federal Reserve Board

N/A

**

Undetermined

Thu 03/03
8:30 am et

Jobless Claims
for week ending 02/26

Bur. of Labor Statistics
Department of Labor

395k

*

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Thu 03/03
8:30 am et

Productivity & Costs
Q4 '10 revised

Labor Department

Prod 2.3%
Costs 0.3%

**

 If above consensus!
 If below consensus

Thu 03/03
10:00 am et

ISM Index (Non-Mfg)
for February '11

National Association of Purchasing Mgt.

59.0%

**

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Fri 03/04
8:30 am et

Employment Situation
for February '11

Bur. of Labor Statistics
Department of Labor

Payrolls 175br>Unemp 9.2

****

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

Fri 03/04
10:00 am et

Factory Orders
for January ' 11

Bureau of the Census
Dept. of Commerce

2.0%

*

 If above consensus
 If below consensus

* Low Importance

** Moderate Importance

*** Important

**** Very Important



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Home Loan Rates Caught in Tug-O-War

In This Issue...

Last Week in Review: Mortgage Bonds were pushed and pulled by fear and uncertainty. Read what it means to home loan rates.

Forecast for the Week: It doesn’t get much bigger than this! Here’s a sneak peek of the high-impact reports due out this week.

View: You could slash your tax bill by up to $1,000 for each qualifying child! Read below to find out how.

Last Week in Review

"Fear comes from uncertainty," wrote the poet William Congreve. Last week, however, the markets were moved by fear and by uncertainty that were unrelated. On the one hand, unrest in the Middle East drove up Oil prices and pushed investors into the safety of Bonds - while on the other hand, fear of inflation limited the gains that Bonds experienced. To see how those elements impacted home loan rates, let’s take a deeper look at each.

First, the global unrest in the Middle East continues to impact the markets. The protests that started a few weeks ago in Tunisia and Egypt have now spread to Bahrain, Yemen and Libya. Libya is of particular concern to the markets, since it is the largest holder of oil reserves in Africa.

With the thought of Oil fields at risk and with no foreseeable resolution in the near term, Oil spiked as much as $12 a barrel higher last week - climbing over the mark of $100 per barrel. Remember, high oil prices aren't good for anything; they’re tough on the economic recovery, and they’re inflationary. And in terms of your wallet, the recent spike in oil has only just begun to translate to pumps across the country, so you can expect to see higher prices in the coming weeks.

In addition to higher Oil prices, the unrest is creating fear and doubt in Traders’ minds about what might happen. And when Traders are uncertain, they tend to move money into the relative safety of Bonds, which offer lower returns but also lower risks. This flood of money into Bonds - including Mortgage Bonds - helps prices and home loan rates improve. And sure enough, last week Mortgage Bonds traded higher, as protests and uncertainty permeated throughout the Middle East.

On the other hand, those gains in Bonds have been limited by fears of inflation down the road. That’s because investors demand a higher yield now to offset their concerns that future inflation will eat into their returns. That was evidenced by the tepid buying demand in last week's Treasury auctions. And as the economy continues to slowly expand and inflation fears grow, rates will gradually move higher over time.

The bottom line is that global unrest has been a driving force behind improvement in the Bond market... and that it may continue to do so in the coming weeks. But at the same time, it’s important to remember that those gains are fleeting and have even been limited by inflation fears - so the positive picture for Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates won’t last long.

Now’s the time to look at your unique situation and take action. It only takes a few moments to sit down and see how the national and international news may help you benefit from a refinance or the purchase of a new home. Call or email today to get started. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates.

Forecast for the Week

In addition to monitoring the unrest in the Middle East, we have a big week of economic reports on our hands - with the big news coming on Friday! Here’s a highlight of what to watch:

  • The week starts off Monday morning with reports on Personal Spending and Personal Income, as well as Pending Home Sales. The Pending Home Sales report comes after last week’s Existing Home Sales release, which came in better than anticipated... but the National Association of Realtors who reports all these numbers is under fire for possible overestimation in the past few years.
  • On Monday, we’ll also see the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Remember, inflation fears have grown and have been limiting the gains that Bonds experience. In fact, the inflation reading in last week’s GDP release was hotter than previously reported - and that coincides with the recent Consumer Price Index trend, which saw a hot 0.4% month-over-month gain during each of the past two months. So the markets and the Fed will definitely be keeping a close eye out for the PCE report this week!
  • Manufacturing reports will also hit the newswires this week. On Monday, we’ll see the Chicago PMI, which reports on manufacturing in Chicago and is a good indicator of overall economic activity. Then on Tuesday, we’ll see the ISM Index, which is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
  • The big topic of the week will be employment. First up is the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, which measures non-farm private employment, followed by another round of Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. In last week’s report, Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower than the expectations. Normally, this would have applied pressure on the Bond market, but again the unrest in the Middle East is trumping this data.
  • Finally, the busy week culminates with the highly anticipated monthly Jobs Report on Friday. This report features new data regarding job growth and the unemployment rate - needless to say, this report can be a big market mover!

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

The important thing to notice in the chart below is the direction on the right side of the chart. As you can see, Bond prices moved upward, which is good news for home loan rates. One of the major reasons for this movement was the ongoing unrest and uncertainty in the Middle East, which prompted Traders to move money into the relative safety of Bonds.

As a result, now is an ideal time to take advantage of the historically low home loan rates. If you or someone you know is looking to refinance or purchase a home, call or email to find out how you can benefit.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 25, 2011)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Take Credit for Your Kids

Each qualifying child could slash your tax bill by up to $1,000.

By Mary Beth Franklin, Kiplinger.com

Thanks to a flurry of year-end tax legislation, eligible families will continue to benefit from a $1,000 tax credit for each child under age 17 when they file their 2010 taxes -- and for each of the next two years. (A tax credit, which reduces your tax bill dollar-for-dollar, is more valuable than a tax deduction, which merely reduces the amount of income that is taxed.)

In these tough economic times, when many families have seen their income slashed, some taxpayers also may qualify for an expanded Additional Child Tax Credit, which could trigger a refund even if no tax is due.

Basic child credit

You can claim a tax credit of up to $1,000 for each of your children under age 17 as long as you meet the income eligibility requirements. The qualifying child must satisfy the relationship and residency test and not have provided more than half of his or her own support. Barring further congressional action, the child tax credit is scheduled to revert to $500 per qualifying child on January 1, 2013.

The child credit phases out in $50 increments for each $1,000 (or fraction thereof) by which your adjusted gross income (AGI) exceeds $75,000 for individuals or $110,000 for married couples filing jointly ($55,000 for married filing separately). The income level at which the credit completely disappears depends on the number of qualifying children.

For example, a married couple filing jointly with one child would lose the credit completely when their income topped $129,001. But with two children, they could claim at least part of the child credit until their income exceeded $149,001, and with three children, the credit would disappear once their AGI topped $169,001. Use Form 8812 to claim the child tax credit.

Refundable credit

Some low-income families qualify for a refundable child tax credit, which was increased significantly as a result of the economic stimulus package passed in 2009. Lowering the income threshold to $3,000 boosts the size of the refund available to qualifying taxpayers. It’s designed to put cash in the hands of Americans who may have lost their jobs or had their hours cut back during this recession.

For example, a single mother of two children with $10,000 of earned income would owe no tax after claiming a standard deduction and personal exemptions for each member of her household. So the $2,000 child credit normally would go to waste because she owes no tax. But under the revised law, she is able to claim a refundable tax credit worth the lesser of the unused child tax credit - in this case $2,000 - or 15% of her earned income that exceeds the $3,000 threshold. In this example, her $7,000 of income over the threshold would translate into a refund of $1,050.

Child-Care credit

If you pay someone to watch your child while you and your spouse work - or while you are looking for work - you may be able to write off some of your expenses for children up to age 13 or older children who are physically or mentally disabled. You can claim a tax credit for a portion of your expenses or use a flexible spending account at work, which allows you to pay your child-care costs with pretax dollars.

The child-care tax credit covers 20% to 35% of what you spend, depending on income. Taxpayers with AGIs of $15,000 or less get the top credit of 35%, and the rate gradually declines until it bottoms out at 20% for taxpayers with income above $43,000. The maximum credit is $3,000 for one child and $6,000 for two or more children.

The flex plan is often a better deal for higher-income workers because the money set aside for child-care costs not only escapes income tax, it also avoids the 7.65% Social Security and Medicare tax. So if you’re in the 25% federal tax bracket, running the maximum $5,000 of child-care expenses through your flex plan avoids a 32.65% tax hit, lowering your tax bill by $1,633. You'll save even more if your FSA contribution escapes state income taxes, too.

If the flex plan is better for you, note this twist: Although you can’t shelter more than $5,000 in a flex plan, the maximum child-care credit for two or more children is $6,000. So even if you max out your flex plan, you may be able to claim up to $1,000 of additional expenses through the child-care credit. That could lower your tax bill by $200 or more.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.


--------------------------

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 28 - March 4, 2011

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 28 - March 04

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Mon. February 28

08:30

Personal Income

Jan

0.1%

 

0.4%

Moderate

Mon. February 28

08:30

Personal Spending

Jan

0.4%

 

0.7%

Moderate

Mon. February 28

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

Jan

0.1%

 

0.0%

HIGH

Mon. February 28

08:30

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE

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Friday, February 25, 2011

Chilling cartoon from 1934

This cartoon was in the Chicago Tribune in 1934. Look carefully at the plan of action in the lower left corner.

Remember the adage: 
"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."



NOTE: THIS IS A CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVILEGED COMMUNICATION. This transmission is intended only for use by the individuals or entities to which it is addressed, and contains confidential and/or privileged information. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, or the employee or agent responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please send a reply to us and permanently delete the e-mail from your computer.

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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Inflation Heating Up the Winter Months

In This Issue...

Last Week in Review: Inflation is heating up - find out what this means for home loan rates.

Forecast for the Week: The markets may be closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but the rest of the week is filled with a slew of economic reports.

View: Know who the first president was to live in the White House? How about the only president born on July 4th? Read this week’s View for fun facts about the presidency.

Last Week in Review

"You sound like a broken record..." or so the cliché goes. And lately that saying certainly applies to the phrase the media has been repeating recently: Don’t fight the Fed.

So what does "Don’t fight the Fed" mean exactly, especially when it comes to home loan rates? Let’s answer that by going back a few months. In early November, when home loan rates were at all time lows, the Fed announced their plan to purchase $600 Billion in Treasuries through mid-2011. Dubbed Quantitative Easing 2 or QE2, the Fed had three goals:

  1. Boost Stock Prices
  2. Lower unemployment
  3. Create inflation

After just two and a half months, an argument could be made that the Fed has been somewhat successful so far. Stocks are higher, the unemployment rate has improved (though more improvement is certainly needed), and as we saw last week inflation has ticked higher.

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index for January were hotter than expected and, as the chart shows, the more closely watched Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at the highest level since March 2010. And we’re not just seeing hotter inflation here. Reports last week showed inflation is heating up in China and England, too.

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates? Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and usually any hints of inflation cause both to worsen. Yet, you may be wondering why Bonds and home loan rates improved slightly last week. There are two things to note: First, while last week’s inflation data was a touch hotter than expected, overall, it’s still on the tame side. Second, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims was a disappointment, suggesting that the labor market continues to improve but at a very choppy and sluggish snail's pace.

The bottom line to remember is the phrase we started out with: Don’t fight the Fed. If the Fed wants to create inflation as one of its three-fold goals for QE2, it will likely succeed...and Bonds and home loan rates will likely worsen over time as a result. That’s why if you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, this is a great time to get started! Call or email me if you have any questions at all - I’m always happy to talk to you! Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates.

Forecast for the Week

It’s a holiday shortened week, with both the Stock and Bond Markets closed Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day. But there will be lots of news the rest of the week:

  • We’ll get a double read on how the consumer is feeling, first on Tuesday with the Consumer Confidence Report and then on Friday with the Consumer Sentiment Index.
  • We’ll also get a double read on the housing market, with Wednesday’s Existing Home Sales Report and Thursday’s New Home Sales Report.
  • Thursday will also bring another weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report - will this week’s report disappoint like last week’s?
  • And there’s one more double read, this one on the health of the economy. Thursday’s Durable Goods Report will update us on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time (i.e. appliances, furniture, etc). Then on Friday there’s the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and rates have made some improvements since February 9. But keeping in mind the saying about the Fed...and the signs of inflation...I’ll be watching closely to see what happens next.

-----------------------

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 18, 2011)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Hail to the Chief: Fun Facts about the Presidency

Chances are you know that Barack Obama is the 44th president. But did you know he’s only the 43rd person to hold the office? That’s because Grover Cleveland was elected to two non-consecutive terms as president - so he’s listed as the 22nd and the 24th president. As a result, the number of people who held office is actually one less than the number of presidents the United States has had.

That’s just one of many fun presidential facts behind the story of America’s presidents. In honor of Presidents’ Day this week, here are some tidbits and oddities about the men who have led our country.

First president to live in the White House?

Officially, John Adams became the first president to live in the presidential residence that we know as the White House. However, when he moved into the residence during 1800, it wasn’t called the White House. Instead, it was referred to as the President’s Palace, the President’s House, or the Executive Mansion. The first president to live in the "White House" was Theodore Roosevelt, who gave the residence its official name in 1901.

Tallest president?

The tallest president of the United States was Abraham Lincoln, who stood 6 feet, 4 inches tall. Conversely, the shortest president was James Madison, who was only 5 feet, 4 inches tall - an entire foot shorter than Lincoln.

First president to be born as a US citizen?

Martin Van Buren was the first president to be born as a citizen of the newly created United States of America. The seven presidents prior to Van Buren (Washington, J. Adams, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, J.Q. Adams, and Jackson) were considered British subjects. Incidentally, William Henry Harrison, who took office immediately after Van Buren was also born as a British subject. It’s also interesting to note that Abraham Lincoln was the first president born outside of the original colonies. Herbert Hoover was the first president born west of the Mississippi River. And, finally, Richard Nixon was the first and only president born in California.

Youngest president?

This is another tricky one. Theodore Roosevelt was actually the youngest president of the United States. He was only 42 years old when he took office; however, he became president after William McKinley died in office. John F. Kennedy was the youngest president ever "elected" to office. He was only 43 years old when he was elected president in November of 1960. So depending on how you interpret the question, either answer could be correct. On the flip side, Ronald Reagan was the oldest president. He was 69 when he took office and 77 when he left.

First president to appear on television?

Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first president to appear on TV. The appearance took place during the opening ceremonies of the World’s Fair in 1939. John F. Kennedy, however, was the first president to give a live television news conference. Warren G. Harding and Rutherford B. Hayes had famous firsts of their own. Harding was the first president to address the nation via radio, and Hayes was the first president to have a telephone in the White House.

Born on July 4th?

The only president to be born on the Fourth of July was Calvin Coolidge, who was born on July 4, 1872. However, three presidents died on this national holiday. Both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson died on July 4, 1826. And James Monroe died on July 4, 1831.

Lost the popular vote, but was still elected president?

John Quincy Adams was actually voted into office by the House in 1824 after the general election failed to produce a majority of the electoral votes. In addition, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and most recently George W. Bush in 2000 also took office despite losing the popular vote.

Graduated from the US Naval Academy in Annapolis?

The only president to graduate from the US Naval Academy in Annapolis was Jimmy Carter, who graduated in 1946 and then served in the nuclear submarine program. Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower both graduated from West Point. Woodrow Wilson, on the other hand, was the only president who had a Ph.D. He received a doctorate in political science from Johns Hopkins University in 1886.

Served in the US Congress after leaving office?

Andrew Johnson and John Quincy Adams were the only two former presidents to serve in the US Congress after leaving office. Johnson served in the Senate, and Adams served in the House. John Tyler did not serve in the US Congress, but he did serve as a delegate to the provisional Congress of the Confederacy after the outbreak of the Civil War. On the other hand, William Howard Taft is the only president to serve as chief justice of the US Supreme Court. After leaving the White House, he became a professor of constitutional law at Yale and was later appointed chief justice in 1921.


--------------------------

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 21-25, 2011

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 21 - February 25

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. February 22

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Feb

67.0

 

65.6

Moderate

Wed. February 23

10:00

Existing Home Sales

Jan

5.23M

 

5.28M

Moderate

Thu. February 24

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

2/19

410K

 

410K

Moderate

Thu. February 24

08:30

Durable Goods Orders

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