Hedging Against Inflation and Risk: Abroad, in the US... and on

In This Issue...

Last Week in Review: Europe and the Treasury Department impacted Bonds. Find out what it all means to home loan rates. Forecast for the Week: This week will be busy from start to finish... but the biggest news will hit on Friday. Read below to learn why. View: Mobile phone banking is convenient. But is it safe? Read these tips to help lower your risk!

Last Week in Review

"It’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN!" That old adage proved true last week as the fiscal problems in Europe came back to roost as predicted - even after being overshadowed recently by news from Japan and the Middle East. Despite all the focus on government debt in Europe, it’s important to note that the problems are more than just financial; there is also a ton of political capital at risk. The stronger and more fiscally conservative Euro member countries like Germany and France do not want to pick up the tab for poor performing countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and many others standing in line behind them. And as news flows out of Europe - either good or bad - Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates here in the US will move in sympathy. One news item that pressured Bonds lower last week was word that inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) jumped to the highest level in two years in February. Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds, and inflation around the globe seeps into the US. In fact, we’re already seeing it as Producer Prices (which look at wholesale inflation) are running at very hot levels... with prices up 3.3% in just the last three months. If pricing pressures don't recede for producers of goods and services, companies will have one of two choices: Either: Absorb the higher cost of goods - and, thereby, hurt earnings growth Or: Pass those increased costs onto consumers - thereby, creating consumer inflation Both of those scenarios would be bad for Stocks and Bonds. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Backed Securities - which are a type of Bond - those scenarios would also be bad for home loan rates. Speaking of Mortgage Backed Securities, last week the Treasury Department announced it is going to begin selling some of its massive Mortgage Backed Securities holdings. This is important to anyone looking to purchase or refinance a home. That’s because this announcement immediately pushed Bond prices significantly lower, as Traders tried to get their own positions sold. Think of it as a financial game of musical chairs... in which no one wants to be the last one standing with a mitt full of Mortgage Backed Securities. This isn’t the last we’ll hear about this - and since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Backed Securities, this creates the potential for home loan rates to rise in the near future. Fortunately, home loan rates are still at very attractive levels for now, despite the Bond market taking a hit for most of last week. So if you’ve been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, this is the time to see how you can benefit before rates possibly move higher. Because as bad as it was to lose some Bond pricing in the last few days, prices could move significantly worse depending on how they hold on to technical support. For more information on what this means and how it may impact you or someone you know, call or email today. I’ll be happy to explain the situation and offer advice based on your unique situation.

Forecast for the Week

This week will be busy from start to finish... but the biggest news will hit on Friday! Right away Monday morning we’ll see the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. And as stated above, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds - which means it’s also bad for home loan rates. We’ll also see a new report Monday morning on Pending Home Sales, which comes after last week’s disappointing reports on Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales. This week, we’ll gain new insight on consumers - with the Personal Spending and Personal Income reports on Monday as well as the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday. Manufacturing will also be in the news with Thursday’s release of the Chicago PMI, which reports on manufacturing in Chicago and is a good indicator of overall economic activity. But the big news to watch this week relates to employment, which kicks off Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report on non-farm private employment. Next up is another round of Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. Last week’s report indicated that Jobless Claims are improving on a weekly basis, but at a snail's pace and not enough to make a meaningful dent in our stubbornly high unemployment rate. Finally, the busy week culminates with the highly anticipated Jobs Report on Friday. This report features new data regarding job growth and the unemployment rate - needless to say, this report can be a big market mover! Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates took a negative turn last week, due in large part to pressure from inflation concerns and a rebound in the Stock market. However, rates are still attractive - making this an opportune time to take action for people looking to purchase or refinance a home before rates potentially worsen further. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 25, 2011)

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Safe Ways to Bank With Your Smart Phone Follow these steps to lower the risk of having your personal information stolen. By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com Using your smart phone to check your bank account balance or deposit a check is convenient. But is it safe? Hackers are getting better at finding ways to tap into smart phones and capture people’s account numbers and other personal information. However, there are ways to lower your risk of becoming a victim, says Michael Gregg, a cyber security expert and founder of Superior Solutions. Here are his tips: Don’t use public Wi-Fi to access accounts online. Use your phone provider’s network, instead, because it’s more difficult for hackers to tap into it. Public Wi-Fi connections, on the other hand, are easily compromised not just by savvy cybercriminals but by anyone who downloads a free program, which allows users to see what others are doing online and log onto their accounts as them. Watch out for smishing (fake text messages). If you get a text message supposedly from your financial institution warning you that there may be a problem with your account, don’t click on any links or call a number in the message. The link could take you to a phony site with malicious software that will give criminals access to your phone. And the number could connect you with scammers who are trying to collect your account information. Go directly to your bank’s Web site to check your account or to get a customer service number. And if you get a text message asking you to download a security update for your phone, don’t be fooled. Smart phone makers don’t send out security updates by text message, Gregg says. Be careful where you browse. Go to sites you know to conduct financial transactions. And before downloading any banking applications, check your financial institution’s site to make sure it offers one. Apple puts all apps for the iPhone through serious scrutiny, but other smart phone makers do not. A year ago, more than 50 fraudulent mobile banking apps appeared in the Android marketplace and were removed once they were discovered -- after many had bought and downloaded the apps. Don’t jailbreak your iPhone. You’ll lose your security mechanisms, Gregg says, if you tamper with your iPhone so it can run on another service provider’s network or download additional apps. Reprinted with permission. All Content ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com. -------------------------- Economic Calendar for the Week of March 28 - April 1, 2011 Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise. Economic Calendar for the Week of March 28 - April 01 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. March 28 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.4%   1.0% Moderate Mon. March 28 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.6%   0.2% Moderate Mon. March 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Feb 0.2%   0.1% HIGH Mon. March 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   0.8% HIGH Mon. March 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan 0.3%

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MBSQuoteline Weekly Newsletter

	Mortgage Time Mortgage Market News for the week ending March 25, 2011
Compliments of Philip Jensen AmeriFirst Financial PHONE: (480) 682-6613 PJensen@amerifirst.us    Events This Week: GDP Higher Durable Orders Fell Existing Sales Down Sentiment Lower Events Next Week: Mon 3/28 Pending Sales Core PCE 2-yr Auction Tues 3/29 Confidence 5-yr Auction Wed 3/30 7-yr Auction Thur 3/31 Chicago PMI Fri 4/1 Employment ISM Manufacturing		Treasury Will Sell MBS With no major developments in Japan or the Middle East and little economic data on the schedule, mortgage markets had one of their quietest weeks of the year. The only significant market moving news was an unexpected announcement from the Treasury on Monday, which pushed mortgage rates a little higher. For the rest of the week, mortgage rates barely changed. The Treasury announced on Monday that it will begin selling its remaining $142 billion in agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings. Beginning this month, the Treasury plans to sell up to $10 billion per month, as they wind down the emergency programs put in place in 2008 during the financial crisis. The expected increase in future supply pushed MBS prices lower. Mortgage rates, which are largely based on MBS prices, moved higher. The big question now is what the Federal Reserve plans to do with its larger $944 billion MBS portfolio. A similar announcement from the Fed would have a much larger negative effect on mortgage rates. The housing sector data released this week was weaker than expected. February Existing Home Sales fell 10% from January. The inventory of unsold existing homes rose to an 8.6-month supply from a 7.5-month supply in January. Distressed sales accounted for 39% of all sales. Median existing home prices dropped 5% to the lowest level since April 2002. February New Home Sales fell 17%. As a result of price declines and continued low mortgage rates, home affordability is at the most favorable level in years, according to data from both the NAR and the NAHB. Also Notable: The Jobless Claims four-week average declined to the lowest level since July 2008 The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week Gold prices rose to record levels near $1,435 per ounce Portugal's sovereign debt rating was cut by S&P Average 30 yr fixed rate: Last week: -0.10% This week: +0.05% Stocks (weekly): Dow: 12,200 +300 NASDAQ: 2,750 +100    Week Ahead The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a gain of 170K jobs in March. Before the employment data, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income and the Core PCE price index will come out on Monday. Chicago PMI will come out on Thursday, and the ISM Manufacturing index will be released on Friday. Consumer Confidence, Factory Orders and Construction Spending will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The FDIC is expected to release its proposed definition of a Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) next week as well. This announcement will begin to clarify which loans will be subject to risk retention. To learn more about news impacting interest rates and mortgage markets, go to www.mbsquoteline.com To learn more about the newsletter, please call 800-627-1077 All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD and may not be reproduced without permission.
	This email was sent from Jamie Breuker at AmeriFirst Financial. To unsubscribe, email pjensen@amerifirst.us. Best Mortgage Rates in Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Phoenix, Queen Creek, Tempe Arizona. Lowest Mortgage rates in the phoenix metro area of Arizona.

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Is Your Home Equity Line Hurting Your Credit?

Last Week in Review: Our thoughts continue to go out to people suffering in both Japan and the Middle East. Read on to learn how world events impacted the markets. Forecast for the Week: The volatility is sure to continue, as will the barrage of news, including several reports that will tell us how our economic recovery is faring. View: Have a home equity line of credit? Know if it is impacting your credit score unfairly? Check out important details below!

Last Week in Review

"It’s a small world after all..." That notion was especially evident last week, with both the news in Japan and the Middle East impacting our markets. Here’s what happened, and what the impact was on home loan rates. The first thing to understand is the concept of "safe haven trading." At times of global unrest and uncertainty, like with last week’s nuclear crisis in Japan and the ongoing fighting in Libya, Traders will park their money in "safe" investments like our Bonds. And since Bonds such as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are tied to home loan rates, when Bond pricing improves, our home loan rates can improve... which is what we saw last week. But it’s also important to understand how incredibly volatile this situation is. A "safe haven trade" is just that... a trade, which is short-term. Should events around the world become more stable, this safe haven trade can unwind very quickly... with Bond prices and home loan rates worsening as a result. This is similar to how the market reacted at the end of last week, when Libya declared a cease fire to fighting after the United Nations declared a no-fly zone. Another thing to note is that Bonds and home loan rates are facing some additional headwinds that could hamper their improvement. First, if Japan sells some of their Treasury holdings to help finance the recovery and reconstruction, like they did in 1995 after the Kobe earthquake, this could spur a sell-off in Bonds overall, which would cause Bonds and home loan rates to worsen. Second, we cannot overlook the impact of inflation... which is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates... both here and overseas. Not only is China struggling with inflation even though they have raised rates and tightened lending requirements multiple times over the past few months, but last week both our Producer Price Index (which measures inflation at the wholesale level) and our Consumer Price Index were hotter than expected. The bottom line: If inflation is allowed to grow, it can be very difficult to rein in and control... and this will hinder improvement in home loan rates. And, if the situations in Japan and the Middle East stabilize or improve, we could see further unwinding of the "safe-haven" buying of US Bonds... which will also hinder improvement in home loan rates. If you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, call or email me to learn more about how you can benefit. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates.

Forecast for the Week

Continuing developments in world events are sure to impact the markets this week, but there are some important US economic reports to look for, too, including: Monday’s Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday’s New Home Sales Report for February - will they show improvement in the housing market? We’ll get a read on the economic recovery with the Durable Goods Report on Thursday, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time (i.e. televisions, appliances, vehicles, etc). It’s an interesting report, as people tend to hold back on these types of purchases when they are feeling a need to be extra conservative with their finances or feel insecure about their employment. We’ll also get a read on the labor market with Thursday’s weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 385,000, right smack at expectations, and show that the labor market is continuing to improve. Friday will bring two additional reads on our economic recovery: The Consumer Sentiment Index and the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved due to the turmoil around the world, but they were unable to improve above a key technical level. I’ll be watching to see which way the markets move this week. ----------------------- Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 18, 2011)

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Home Equity Lines of Credit and Your Credit Score What You Need to Know and Do Credit reports have always been important, but they’ve grown even more important in recent years. Now more than ever, you need to make sure you understand what’s on your credit report - and you need to know what steps you can take to improve your score. For example, did you know that a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can impact your credit score quite dramatically... and sometimes unfairly... depending on how it is reported? Here’s What You Need to Know... and Do! First, you need to know that HELOC’s are commonly reported by the three credit bureaus as revolving accounts. In reality however, they do not fall under the typical revolving terms, even though they are set up in the same way as a revolving account. That’s because HELOC’s are secured by an asset. Here’s the Good News... The Fair Credit Reporting act requires reporting agencies to report true and accurate information. So when a HELOC is reported as a revolving account, you can actually send a letter to the three credit bureaus asking them to change the type of account from "Revolving" to "Line of Credit" or "Other." This way, the account will not be rated by the scoring system using the "Balance to Limit" ratio scenario - which can drop a credit score by as much as 75 points if the HELOC is maxed out to the limit of the available credit line. A Final Word of Advice If you do decide to send a letter, you should send it as a Certified Letter, along with a copy of the HELOC agreement. You may have to send the letters more than once, but persistence is the key to accomplishing a positive result with the bureaus. This article was adapted from information provided by national credit expert Linda Ferrari, author of "THE BIG SCORE: Getting It and Keeping It, Buying Power for Life." Learn more and check out her credit resources at www.lindaferrari.com -------------------------- Economic Calendar for the Week of March 21-25, 2011 Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise. Economic Calendar for the Week of March 21 - March 25 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. March 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 5.05M 5.36M Moderate Wed. March 23 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 288K 284K Moderate Thu. March 24 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 3/19 384K 385K Moderate Thu. March 24 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.9% 3.2% Moderate Fri. March 25 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 2.9% 2.8% Moderate Fri. March 25 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q4 0.4% 0.4% Moderate Fri. March 25 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

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Markets Moved by Tsunami and Saudi Arabia

Last Week in Review: Our hearts and minds - as well as the markets - were moved by the tsunami in Japan and unrest in Saudi Arabia. Read how both impacted Bonds and home loan rates! Forecast for the Week: Double dose after double dose hits the news wires this week. Find out what to watch and why! View: Discover the pros, cons, and interesting tidbits about Daylight Saving Time, which begins this week.

Last Week in Review

"And now... the rest of the story" - Paul Harvey. With his famous line, Paul Harvey pointed out for years that there’s more to every story - and often those hidden details influence what happened. With that in mind, let’s look at the “rest of the story” behind last week’s news items, which had alternating impacts on Bond prices and home loan rates. First, let us start by sending our thoughts and prayers to the families affected by last week’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The earthquake was a magnitude of 8.9 - the strongest in 140 years. The earthquake in Japan and its damage created some counterintuitive market reactions. One would think that US Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds would have traded much higher, as often is the case with devastating natural events that drive money into "safe haven" trades. But that wasn't the case. Why? The answer is that buying of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds as a safe haven trade was offset by the Japanese selling some of their own massive holdings of Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds, in order to repatriate money back to their country during the time of emergency. Considering that Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. debt at $877 Billion, selling just a tiny position of their holdings has an impact on Bond prices. In addition, Bond prices traded in very volatile fashion last week after getting jockeyed around on news out of Saudi Arabia that police had opened fire on protesters with rubber bullets. Let’s look at how this influenced the markets in a different way than one might at first imagine. Like other recent uprisings in the Middle East, Saudi protesters are looking for more democracy, the right to elect public officials, greater civil rights, freedom of expression, more women's rights and a higher minimum wage. Interestingly, however, oil fell last week, despite the news. Why? Shouldn't unrest in Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil producer, push prices higher? Yes, but that news was offset by the earthquake in Japan. That’s because Japan is a huge importer of oil... and the market senses that the earthquake and subsequent tsunami may create an economic slowdown and diminish the demand for oil. Seeing that Mortgage Bonds are lower - even in the face of weak Stocks and enormous uncertain global news - tells us that the gains in Bonds are not coming with a lot of conviction and Traders are selling into this strength. This is because a lot of headwinds remain for Bonds - like inflation abroad, rising government debt and continued QE2 purchases. This is a good example of why it is important to work with a mortgage professional that understands not only what was reported in the news, but also how the many cross currents may have alternating effects on everything from Bonds, Stocks, Oil to the US Dollar.

Forecast for the Week

"Double dose!" is the phrase of the week, as we’ll see multiple reports this week focusing on the same segments of the economy: We’ll start off with some big news Tuesday, when the Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting and releases its Policy Statement later that afternoon. As always, what the Fed says about the economy, inflation, and its Quantitative Easing program could have an impact on home loan rates. There’s a double dose of real estate news with Wednesday’s release of data on Housing Starts and Building Permits in February. Check back with me on Wednesday to get the breakdown of how the news actually arrived! There’s also a double dose of manufacturing news. Tuesday’s Empire State Index looks at New York State’s manufacturing sector and is a good gauge of manufacturing overall, while on Thursday we’ll also see another important manufacturing report in the Philadelphia Fed Index. A double dose of inflation news also comes our way this week with Wednesday’s Producer Price Index Report, which highlights inflation at the wholesale level, and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index Report, measuring inflation for consumers like you and me! Remember: The Fed is intent on creating inflation, which is unfriendly to home loan rates, and signs of inflation from these reports could be unfavorable for rates. Thursday we’ll get a read on employment with the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless claims rose 26,000 in the latest week to 397,000, which was above expectations but still below that psychological barrier of 400,000. Finally, on Thursday we’ll see a double dose of manufacturing data with the release of reports on Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production in February. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate climbs too high it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and decides how to set interest rates on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflation. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see by the arrows in the chart below, Bond prices experienced some up-and-down volatility last week, but ended the week near where they began - meaning home loan rates are still near historic lows. So what should you do if you or someone you know is in the market for a new home? The bottom line is that even if housing were to drop a little further in some areas, the affordability coming from today's rates serves as a backstop against any moderate price reduction. Remember, housing will likely be in a much better position in the second half of the year and at that time rates could be a bit higher. Now’s the time to take advantage of the combination of low rates and affordable housing. Call or email today to get started. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 11, 2011)

Sping Forward Beginning March 13

Daylight Saving Time (DST) begins on Sunday, March 13, 2011. The way we refer to time zones also changes. For example, Eastern Standard Time (EST) becomes Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). But remember, some areas of the United States don’t use DST, such as Arizona, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, the US Virgin Islands and American Samoa. Benefits of Daylight Saving Time Despite some concerns, Americans overwhelmingly like Daylight Saving Time. There is simply more sunlight in the evenings to enjoy the outdoors and get things done. Plus, additional hours of daylight can help save energy on a national scale - as much as 100,000 barrels of oil per day according to some estimates. And brighter is safer. Studies have shown that the DST shift reduces traffic accidents. Additionally, a study by the US Law Enforcement Admin also determined that crime is consistently lower during DST, with violent crimes down as much as 10% to 13%. For many crimes, like mugging, darkness is a factor--so more light in the evening hours reduces these types of crimes. Cons of Daylight Saving Time Not everyone benefits from DST. For example, many farmers say that DST has a negative impact on their livestock’s natural schedules. The airline industry also reports that it costs millions of dollars to adjust time schedules - and even then, airlines report numerous problems with international flight connections during the transition time since DST isn’t followed uniformly around the world. Interesting DST Facts A man was actually able to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War using a Daylight Saving Time loophole. When he was born, it was just after midnight, DST. When he was drafted, he successfully argued that in his home state of Delaware, standard time - not DST - was the official time for recording births. So he was technically born on the previous date - which had a much higher draft lottery number - and he was able to avoid being drafted. In September 1999, the West Bank was on Daylight Saving Time, while Israel had switched back to standard time. A group of West Bank terrorists prepared some timed bombs. Unfortunately for them, they misunderstood the time change and the bombs exploded early - killing the terrorists themselves rather than the intended victims, two busloads of innocent citizens. In the 1950s and 60s, each state and locality was permitted to choose start and end DST dates as they desired. During 1965, Minneapolis and St. Paul - which are considered one metropolitan area - didn't agree on start dates, and for a period of time, these Twin Cities had a one hour time change between them. And on one Ohio to Virginia bus route, passengers technically had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles! To keep to their published timetables, Amtrak trains cannot leave a station before the scheduled time. So when the clocks "fall back" in the fall, all trains that are running on time actually stop at 2 am - the official time of DST change - and wait one hour before resuming their routes. In the spring, the routes instantaneously become one hour behind schedule, but they just keep going and do their best to make up the time. Finally, since many electronic devices and computer programs are set to adjust to DST based on the old dates, they may not change automatically on March 13. So, you’ll want to double-check all of your devices and confirm that the time is correct. -------------------------- Economic Calendar for the Week of March 14-18, 2011 Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise. Economic Calendar for the Week of March 14 - March 18 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. March 15 08:30 Empire State Index Mar 17.0   15.43 Moderate Tue. March 15 02:15 FOMC Meeting Mar       HIGH Wed. March 16 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 551K   596K Moderate Wed. March 16 08:30 Building Permits Feb 570K   562K Moderate Wed. March 16 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI)

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