Monday, December 27, 2010

MMG Weekly: Holiday Season Did You Know?

 

Holiday Issue  

 

 

 

 

Happy Holidays - I wish you and yours all the very best during this season!

As your Trusted Advisor, I sincerely hope you're enjoying your complimentary subscription to The Mortgage Market Guide Weekly. Since the Christmas holiday is being observed this week, your next full issue will arrive on Monday, January 3, 2011. In the meantime, please enjoy the article below which contains fun facts about the holiday season.

Season's greetings to you. And if I may be of any assistance to you at this time, please feel free to contact me.

 

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

Fun Facts about the Holiday Season

Santa Claus may live in the North Pole according to all those holiday stories, but did you also know that there's a Santa Claus, Ind. (population 2,303) and a Santa Claus, Ga. (247)? And we can't forget about Noel, Mo. (1,615); Snowflake, Ariz. (5,686); and, for those reindeer lovers, both the village of Rudolph, Wis. (418) and Dasher, Ga. (821).

Here are some other fun facts to share with your family and friends this season, courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau:

  • Potato latkes are a staple of Hanukkah celebrations, and in 2009 50.9% of potatoes in the U.S. were produced in Idaho and Washington.
  • Last year, 14 percent of sales for department stores in all of 2009 occurred in December (the figure was 21 percent for jewelry stores).
  • Book store sales jumped 98 percent from November to December, 2009.
  • $1.2 billion of candles were shipped in 2008 by U.S. manufactures, and candles play a big part in a variety of holiday celebrations.
  • Holly Springs, Miss., and Mount Holly, N.C. are just two of a dozen places named Holly in the United States.
  • The U.S. is expected to have a population of more than 311 million once 2011 arrives.

May the rest of your holiday season be safe and joyful, and wishing you a very happy new year!


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Economic Calendar for the Week of December 27-31, 2010

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 27 - December 31

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. December 28

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Dec

56.1

 

54.1

Moderate

Thu. December 30

08:30

Jobless Claims (Initial)

12/25

NA

 

NA

Moderate

Thu. December 30

09:45

Chicago PMI

Dec

61.6

 

62.5

HIGH

Thu. December 30

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Nov

NA

 

10.4%

Moderate

 

 

 

                                    Philip Jensen

                                                AmeriFirst Financial

                                                602-492-6595

Homes for sale in mesa, phoenix, chandler, Gilbert, ahwatukee, Glendale, Tempe, queen creek. Loans, lending, mortgage loans, mortgage lending, home loans, home mortgage. www.philipjensen.com



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Monday, December 20, 2010

What A Year It has been Been

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: The Fed met, and Congress passed the Tax Cut Bill. But what do both of these mean for home loan rates?

Forecast for the Week: Housing, inflation, and jobs news - all in a holiday shortened week.

View: As you unwrap gifts this holiday season, don't throw the wrapping paper in with your Yule Log... find out why, and other tips on keeping your holiday season safe and fun.

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review  

 

 

 

 

"All good things must come to an end..." or so the popular saying goes. And right now, many people are wondering if this sentiment holds true for the historic low rates we've seen this year. Here's what last week's news suggests.

First, it's important to understand that home loan rates are based on Mortgage Backed Securities, which is a type of Bond. Bonds typically help provide some built in "assistance" when the nation is suffering economic headwinds. For example, negative economic news serves to help Bond prices improve and rates decline, including home loan rates. This is helpful to have when the economy is struggling, as buyers of all products - including homes - need the extra incentive of low rates to be encouraged to buy.

But now, the sharply higher expectations for future economic growth has caused rates to climb - particularly including home loan rates, since the Fed announced its second round of "Quantitative Easing" or QE2 on November 3rd. With QE2, the Fed will purchase $600 Billion in Treasury Securities through mid-2011 to keep our economic recovery on track.

But is there any likelihood rates can rebound? Many experts expect that home loan rates will continue to move higher over time because:

  • At its meeting last week, the Fed left the door open for further QE programs if our economic recovery requires which, like QE2, could hurt Bonds and home loan rates.
  • Congress passed the $858 Billion Tax Cut Bill, and while this is a good economic stimulus, in the short run it adds to the ever-growing deficit - also bad for Bonds and home loan rates.
  • Last week's Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index Reports showed that the Fed appears to be on track with their goal of stimulating a bit more inflation. Inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, which causes home loan rates to rise.

It's important to understand that rates don't simply rise in a straight line. In fact, Bonds and home loan rates did have a late-week rally last week, and that trend of rates worsening with improving dips here and there like we saw last week may be what's in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. At the end of the day, the ongoing and potential addition of further stimulus from the Fed, combined with the stimulus from the tax cuts, will make it tough for Bonds and home loan rates to return to the levels seen earlier this year.

But the good news is that home loan rates are still extremely attractive right now. If you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, call or email me now to get started. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today's historically low rates.

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

It will be a holiday shortened week, with the Bond Market closing at 2:00pm ET Thursday and both the Stock and Bond Markets closed Friday in honor of the Christmas holiday. But there will be plenty of action first, including:

  • A double dose of housing news with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Thursday's New Home Sales Report.
  • Wednesday also brings a read on the economy with the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.
  • Big inflation news comes on Thursday with the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, plus there's also the Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports, which give us some information on the consumer perspective of the economy.
  • Thursday's Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Reports will also tell us if the good trend continues - last week's Initial Claims was the second lowest number seen during 2010, and also the third decline in four weeks.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates rallied at the end of last week. Now would be a great time to call or email me if you have any questions about your situation!


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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 17, 2010)

 

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

Make Your Holiday as Safe as it is Happy

The holiday season is a special time of year, but the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) wants to remind everyone that it can also be dangerous. So the CPSC has issued a number of safety tips for the holidays and a holiday safety video to help keep families healthy, safe, and happy this season.

Here are just three of the important tips that the CPSC posted on its website:

1. Choose Age-Appropriate Toys. Look at the age recommendation on the toys you are choosing and match that recommendation to your child. Avoid toys with small parts for children younger than three-years-old. Those small parts can cause a child to choke. For children under six-years-old, avoid play sets or building toys with small magnets. A child can swallow those magnets, which can result in a serious injury or even death. Starting at a young age, teach your children not to put toys in their mouths.

2. Gear Up. If sports-related gifts such as ride-on toys, bicycles, skates or scooters are on your gift list or around your house, make sure to include helmets that are sized to your child's head and other appropriate safety gear. And then, make sure your child wears the gear properly EVERY time he or she uses the toy or sports equipment.

3. Plastic Wrap. Keep a trash bag at your fingertips while your kids are opening presents. That way, you can immediately throw away plastic wrappings and other toy packaging before they become dangerous playthings. As an added bonus, it makes your cleanup faster, too.

Plus...

Here are two bonus tips from the CPSC's Twitter account:

  • "Heated rooms rapidly dry out live trees. Be sure to monitor water levels and keep the tree stand filled with water."
  • "Never put wrapping paper in the fireplace. It can result in a chimney fire."

If you ever have questions about the safety of a toy or product, visit the CPSC's website at http://www.cpsc.gov/onsafety/.

You can also follow the CPSC on Twitter at http://twitter.com/OnSafety and even watch safety videos on YouTube at aaaa

Posted via email from philipjensen's posterous

Monday, December 13, 2010

Where are rates headed - and why?

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: Are rates going to come back? Here's a break down of possible scenarios!

Forecast for the Week: Get ready for a busy week. Find out what you should watch.

View: Know someone in college or headed there soon? Watch the video below for tips to avoid unexpected college costs.

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review  

 

 

 

 

"Where do we go from here?" That question from Alicia Keys? song is on the minds of many Americans, as they wonder where home loan rates are headed after the recent negative news for Bonds.

Last week, Congress was busy at work on negotiations to extend the Bush-era tax cuts. That news kept a lid on any improvement for Bonds and home loan rates, due to the prospect of an ever-increasing deficit.

And adding to the troubles for Bonds and home loan rates last week was news that inflation is growing in China... and growing fast. How does that impact us? Remember, it's a global economy, so Bond prices all over the world worsen on news of inflation, which is bad for home loan rates.

So the big question is: Will home loan rates go back down?

Although rates are still near historic lows, they have been headed up... and indications are that those unbelievably low home loan rates may be behind us. In fact, there are only a few things that would bring back the lows that we saw in early November:

  • If the tax cut package doesn't get passed, it would be very bad news for the economy and Stock market - but it would help interest rates.
  • If the Fed's recent round of Quantitative Easing falls on its face and doesn't meet its mission of creating inflation, boosting Stock prices, lowering unemployment and creating consumer demand - Bond prices could make some gains as the threat of deflation reemerges. But this is a long shot.
  • If the financial problems in Europe worsen significantly - which would drive investors into the safe haven of the US Bond market - it could help Bond prices, but probably only modestly.

Realistically, the chances of these events happening are unlikely - and in the end, rates may see some brief and fleeting improvements, but many experts believe they will likely continue to creep up over time. And when you include the stimulative action of extending the present tax rates and adding further cuts, it's tough to see Bonds or home loan rates improving much.

The good news is that home loan rates are still extremely attractive and are still near historic lows for now. If you or someone you know has been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, NOW is the time to call or email to get started.

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

Get ready for a busy week of economic reports and news that could impact home loan rates!

  • We'll start off Tuesday morning with the Retail Sales report for November, as well as the Fed's final FOMC Meeting and Policy Statement of the year coming on Wednesday.
  • We'll also see new inflation reports starting on Tuesday with the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. The very next day, we'll see the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a look at inflation on the consumer level. With all of the recent talk over inflation concerns in the future, it will be important to see what these reports reveal - since inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates.
  • We'll also get a dose of manufacturing news in the Empire State Index, which looks at New York State's manufacturing sector, and is a good gauge of manufacturing overall. On Thursday, we'll also see the Philadelphia Fed Index, which is another important manufacturing report. Those two indices have the potential to impact the market, since they indicate the health of the manufacturing sector in the US.
  • Thursday brings the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 421,000, which was below expectations. That was encouraging news, but we still need to see consistent readings below 400,000 before real confidence in the labor market can take hold.
  • Finally, we'll see more housing news this week, when reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits in November are released on Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

The chart below shows the recent direction of Bonds - and, therefore, home loan rates. The important thing to note is the downward trend, which shows how Bond pricing and therefore home loan rates continued to worsen last week.

Fortunately, there's still time to lock in at near historic lows. It only takes a few minutes to see if this makes sense for you, or one of your friends, family members, neighbors, clients or coworkers. Call or email today, and I'll be happy to help right away.


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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 10, 2010)

 

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

Surprise: More College Expenses! Here's How to Avoid Them...

College tuition costs are staggering these days - and so are some of the college-related expenses that you may not be expecting. Watch this video from Kiplinger.com on unexpected college expenses to come up with ways to avoid those indirect costs.

Whether you're planning to send a child to college soon or you know a student in college this year that has already experienced some of these unexpected costs, this video is invaluable!


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Economic Calendar for the Week of December 13-17, 2010

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 13 - December 17

Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate

Actual

Prior

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Monday, December 6, 2010

Jobs Report an Unexpected Stinker

 

In This Issue  

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review: The Jobs Report numbers for November are in. Find out what you need to know about the numbers behind the headline!

Forecast for the Week: Volatility in the markets is sure to continue. Read the forecast below to see why.

View: Want to "penalty-proof" your 2010 tax return? Read the View article below to act now.

 

 

 

 

 

Last Week in Review  

 

 

 

 

"Don't believe the hype." Unfortunately, the lyrics from Public Enemy's hit song came true last week when the official Jobs Report for November was released.

Overall, Traders were caught by surprise last Friday when the Jobs Report came in way below estimates. The private sector numbers also disappointed. But let's look at some important information behind the headline number.

First, on a positive note, last week's report included upward revisions to the past two months. Those revisions showed that the economy produced 38,000 more jobs than previously reported. What caused these revisions? The headline number of jobs lost or created comes from the Business Survey or CES (Current Employment Statistics) Survey, which surveys about 140,000 businesses and government agencies - and uses the birth/death ratio to help calculate or guesstimate the monthly number. Because there are often inaccuracies with that guesstimate, the real final numbers show up in future monthly revisions.

Second, on a grim note, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 9.8%, from the prior month's 9.6%. It's important to note that the unemployment rate is derived from a survey from the Labor Department called the Household Survey or Current Population Survey (CPS) - and this survey is more accurate than the business survey as the information comes from actual phone calls to 50,000-60,000 households.

So when all is said and done, last week's Jobs Report begs the following questions going forward:

  • Was the recent string of economic reports more hype than actual signs that the economy was improving?

  • Will future reports coincide with last Friday's weak Jobs Report?

  • Or was the Jobs Report's weak reading just a small bump on the road to recovery, with potential future upward revisions tempering November's numbers like we saw happen with the last two months?

Time will tell, but one thing is for sure: The Fed was watching the Jobs Report closely and will likely use the weak report as evidence to pump the full dose of Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) into the economy. Remember, Quantitative Easing is the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds to try and stimulate the economy. While QE2 may be good for the economy, it is likely to be unfriendly to Bonds and home loan rates, as we saw last week when Bonds and home loan rates ended the week worse than where they began.

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast for the Week  

 

 

 

 

Compared to last week's busy economic report calendar, this week is light on scheduled reports. But between QE2, Treasury auctions, and the uncertainty in Europe, the volatility in our markets is sure to continue... and that's certainly no hype.

Thursday brings the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report. Last week, Initial Claims were reported above expectations at 436,000. However the 4-week moving average did decline to the lowest reading since August 2, 2008. While this was good news, it was tempered by the weaker-than-expected Jobs Report data last Friday. Remember, we need to see Initial Claims make a sustained movement below 400,000 for the market to feel confident that labor is recovering.

Also, the Treasury will sell $32 Billion in 3-Year Notes on Tuesday, $21 Billion in 10-Years on Wednesday and $13 Billion in 30-Year Bonds on Thursday. It will be interesting to see how these auctions perform in light of the recent spike higher in yields. Ending the week will be the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates have worsened over the last month since the start of QE2. Despite this, an opportunity still exists, as home loan rates are still at historically low levels for now.

Give me a call if you want to review your situation, or forward this email to a friend, family member or colleague who might benefit. I'm always happy to talk to your referrals and provide a complimentary consultation.
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Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 3, 2010)

 

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View...  

 

 

 

 

Penalty-Proof Your Tax Return

Adjust your tax withholding now to boost your take-home pay or to avoid underpayment penalties when you file your 2010 tax return.

By Mary Beth Franklin, Kiplinger.com

When you file your tax return each year, the amount of tax withheld from your paycheck or submitted through estimated quarterly tax payments ideally should match the amount of tax you owe. In reality, that seldom happens.

Most Americans are addicted to tax refunds, as evidenced by the fact that the average income-tax refund rose again this year to a record of nearly $2,900. In essence, more than 75% of U.S. taxpayers gave Uncle Sam an interest-free loan. Many of the remaining taxpayers ended up owing money, and some had to fork over an extra 10% penalty for having too little tax withheld throughout the year.

Both situations are easy to remedy, but you have to act before the end of the year. Just file a revised Form W-4 with your employer. The more "allowances" you claim on the W-4, the less tax will be withheld; the fewer you claim, the more tax will be withheld. You can also ask your employer to withhold a flat amount from your paycheck.

If you regularly get a refund, you've already banked most of it and will still get a refund next spring. But you can stop the leakage from your last few paychecks of the year by adjusting your W-4 now. Worksheets that come with the W-4 will help, or you can struggle through the IRS's online withholding calculator.

But we've got a better idea. If your current financial situation is similar to last year's, just use our Tax Withholding Calculator. Answer three simple questions (you'll find the answers on your 2009 tax return) and we'll estimate how many additional allowances you deserve -- and even show you how much your take-home pay will rise starting next payday, if you claim the allowances on a new W-4. (However, this shortcut won't be much help if your tax situation has changed since last year because, for example, you have a new baby or got a new job).

On the other hand, if you expect that you'll owe money when you file your 2010 tax return next spring, you can avoid an underpayment penalty by boosting your withholding now. You needn't pay every penny of the tax you expect to owe. As long as you prepay 90% of this year's tax bill, you're off the hook for the penalty. Or, you can escape its reach, in most cases, by prepaying 100% of your 2009 tax liability. (But if your 2009 adjusted gross income topped $150,000, you'll have to prepay 110% of last year's tax liability to avoid a penalty, even if your 2010 tax far exceeds your pay-ins.)

If you have both wage and consulting income and expect to owe money on your tax return, boost the taxes withheld from your last few paychecks rather than trying to make up the shortfall with your final estimated quarterly payment due January 18, 2011 (because January 15 is a Saturday and the following Monday is a federal holiday). Taxes that are withheld are treated as if they were spread out evenly throughout the year, sidestepping an underpayment penalty; the estimated-tax-payment approach does not.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents c2010 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.


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Economic Calendar for the Week of December 6-10, 2010

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 06 - December 10

Date

ET

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